08 February 2009

Go build a snow man and stop moaning

The UK is in the grips of the worse freeze in 27 years and everyone is up in arms that the government has not done enough. I am not a big fan of said government but in this case I feel compelled to rant in their favour. Its not very complicated, its basic risk management with a dose of common sense thrown in. Here is how it works...

1. You look at the historical weather patterns
2. Then you look at predicted future weather patterns
3. The models tell you at some point in the next 20 years there will be a severe winter, but the models can't predict exactly when it will occur.
4. You calculate the cost of a severe winter spell and then compare it to the cost of having 5000 snow ploughs and a million tones of salt on hold every winter doing nothing for 19 out of 20 years.
5. The economics tells you its much better to just accept the consequences of the bad weather when it does come, than to maintain an expensive state of permanent readiness. So you do that and it saves tax payers money.

Then, as predicted along comes some bad weather and everyone immediately starts whinging that the country wasn't ready and they can't get to work! This is compounded by the cretins in the press stirring it all up. These are the same people who would, in a normal year, be complain about the "scandalous cost of having all those snow ploughs sitting doing nothing"

So there is a bit of snow and the roads are shut and the schools are closed.
GET OVER IT! Take a couple of days off, enjoy the snow, go sledging and build a snow man with your kids. The world won't stop turning and you might even have some fun.

No comments: